World Series preview, Rays v Brewers

All prices bet365, taken 23 Oct. Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 are in Milwaukee, Games 3, 4 and 5 at Tropicana Field. Game 1 is tonight at 8pm ET (1am Saturday UK).

Right, well, I am glad I left it late, as my initial thoughts on who would pitch Game 1 for the Rays were wrong (Tampa have gone with Nick Martinez and given Drew Rasmussen an extra day's rest). That being said, I now have a conundrum, looking to oppose Misiorowski, who has not been pitching as well in these playoffs as his presumably Cy Young winning regular season numbers (MLB bests of a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP; in the playoffs, a 3.24 ERA in two starts, and he has not got past 4 1/3 innings in either). But in opposition is Nick Martinez, who is not usually the type of pitcher you would expect to see in Game 1 of a World Series (a 3.10 ERA, but a 3.95 FIP and a 15% strikeout rate, though Tampa are 24-9 in his starts this year, playoffs included).

The Brewers thus have the better starter and the better relief pitching (bullpen ERA 3.40, best in the NL, to Tampa's 3.99, and 1.33 in 40 2/3 innings this postseason), even with a lineup that does lack power hitting (154 home runs, 28th of 30 teams). I suppose if you pitch round Caminero (42 homers; no other Ray hit more than 22), the Rays are hardly a murderers' row (169 home runs, 22nd), which is to say the Brewers almost by default look like they HAVE to be the Game 1 selection.

In Game 2, my presumed Game 1 starter for Tampa, Drew Rasmussen, takes the mound and will be faced by Logan Henderson for Milwaukee. They have similar looking season numbers (Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP; Henderson: 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), but Rasmussen has been better lately, pitching deeper into games (6.5 innings a start over his last five, with a 1.10 ERA, and three runs in 21 innings over three playoff starts; Henderson has averaged 4.8 innings over his last five and has not gone past five in either playoff start), and that will matter with Milwaukee's relief pitching advantage. Rasmussen, I think, can get this back to Florida all tied up at one apiece, and into what I think will be a crucial game in this series.

Freddy Peralta for the Rays, who spent his earlier years pitching for the opposing Milwaukee Brewers (eight seasons, 2018 to 2025), has been the better of himself and Gasser for the Brew Crew (ALCS MVP, with two earned runs in 16 innings this postseason; xERA 3.84 to Gasser's 4.27). That said, Peralta got slaughtered in his only start against Milwaukee this season (seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings on 20 July, for the Mets at American Family Field), for all that's not the most sticky or indicative of stats. The pair have similar looking season numbers almost across the board (Peralta: 4.42 ERA, 4.28 FIP; Gasser: 3.87 ERA, 4.23 FIP), and I think I will disregard Peralta's shelling in July and lean the Rays (since joining Tampa in August, Peralta has a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts).

That takes me on to Game 4, where I expect a Milwaukee bullpen game against Griffin Jax (the Brewers used Drohan, May, Romero and Ashby in Game 4 of the NLCS; Jax: 3.53 ERA, and 1.64 over his last five starts), and I would lean the Rays in this game as well, which would have Milwaukee in a big hole in this series as I see it.

I would normally say pitching over bats, but the margins in this series are razor thin. As we then begin the dance again, I think I would be looking at something like Brewers to win Game 1 and lose the series, Rays 4-2, and Rays -1.5 too, which covers the Rays in five. This looks like a Rasmussen MVP if I called it right, too (he lines up for Games 2 and 6).

Series specials

Most stolen bases in series: Cooper Pratt (Brewers) @ 10.00. 19 steals in only 266 plate appearances, the same rate against right handers as Chandler Simpson, and every Rays starter is right handed. He has started all eight of Milwaukee's playoff games, and the Rays allowed the sixth most steals in MLB this season (131), the Brewers the second fewest (71).

Most stolen bases in series: David Hamilton (Brewers) @ 9.50. 30 steals in 387 plate appearances, the best rate against right handers of anyone in the market (8.8 per 100 plate appearances). He has shared third base with Joey Ortiz, starting three of Milwaukee's five playoff games against right handers, including the last two.

Most RBIs in series: Garrett Mitchell (Brewers) @ 23.00. 65 RBI this season, and he has started all eight playoff games, batting sixth in each of the last four, behind Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Bauers and Yelich.

World Series MVP, as hedges against a Brewers series win: Brice Turang @ 9.50 and Garrett Mitchell @ 26.00. Turang: 21 homers, 100 RBI and a .366 on base percentage this season; he bats second and has started all eight playoff games. Mitchell: 11 homers and 65 RBI this season, and two home runs already this postseason.

Most home runs in series: Yandy Díaz (Rays) @ 19.00. 22 homers this season, and he led the ALCS with two. He has led off in all nine of Tampa's playoff games, so he projects for as many plate appearances as anyone in the series. With an honourable mention for Caminero, the rightful favourite (42 homers this season, 20 more than any other Ray).